In February this year, the manufacturing industry

2022-07-29
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In February this year, the instrument and other equipment manufacturing industry was in the rising stage. The market was at a loss. The stock market rose and fell. The futures market was afraid of rising. The dollar seemed to have a rising momentum, but it could not be too optimistic because of the needs of economic recovery. What happened to the market? Is China's real economy going up or down after wandering at the crossroads? The PMI released in February has given the market a shot in the arm. The rising industries include transportation equipment manufacturing, general equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, special equipment manufacturing and instrument cultural equipment manufacturing, communication equipment, computer and electronic equipment manufacturing, pharmaceutical manufacturing and other industries

from the latest data, it can be concluded that China's economy recovers slowly, but the recovery foundation is not solid

pmi released in February has given the market a shot in the arm. According to the China Federation of logistics and purchasing, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry in February was 51.0%, a slight increase of 0.5 percentage points over the previous month, and was above the critical point of 50% expansion and contraction for three consecutive months. Unfortunately, the figure was lower than expected. The figure of 51% is still at a low expansion level, lower than the average value of 52.7% in the same period in history. It can be seen that the foundation for the recovery of the manufacturing industry is not yet stable. The good news is that among the five major PMI indexes, the production index, new order index, employee index and supplier distribution index increased, while only the raw material inventory index decreased

the China Federation of purchasing and logistics reflects that the large aviation industry is accepting thermoplastic composite enterprises, and the large enterprises are gradually recovering, which is related to loose investment and slightly loose money

the rising industries include transportation equipment manufacturing, general equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, special equipment manufacturing and instrument cultural equipment manufacturing, communication equipment, computer and electronic equipment manufacturing, pharmaceutical manufacturing and other industries. However, from the perspective of basic commodities such as iron ore and copper, as well as basic industries such as shipping and oil, the situation is not optimistic, In addition to equipment manufacturing, other raw materials and manufacturing industry are in poor condition; On the other hand, the tight capital situation of large enterprises has been eased. In Shanghai interbank lending market, both short-term and long-term lending rates are low. By 2020, the total output value will reach 2billion yuan, and the effect of reducing the deposit reserve ratio will be immediate. It is believed that in the future, if the funds of local investment and financing platforms or large enterprises continue to be tight and the capital chain continues to face risks, the central bank will also reduce the deposit reserve ratio

in comparison, the situation of small and medium-sized enterprises is much worse, and the best situation is barely maintained. According to the HSBC purchasing managers' index released on March 1, the HSBC China manufacturing PMI value in February was 49.6, which was 0.8 percentage points higher than the final value of the previous month, but still lower than expected. New orders received by enterprises declined for the fourth consecutive month. The new export business recorded the largest decline since last June, and domestic demand did not improve. Due to sluggish growth, enterprises reduced raw material inventory and delayed delivery time, resulting in the second backlog of products in 19 months

there are two abnormal situations that deserve great attention: first, under the background of overcapacity, the price of raw materials has increased significantly, indicating that the future inflationary pressure is not small, and the profit space of enterprises will be further squeezed. In the PMI index released by China Federation of purchasing and logistics in February, the purchase price index of main raw materials was 54.0%, a sharp rise of 4.0 percentage points over the previous month. After falling below 50% for three consecutive months in October 2011, the index stood at the critical point in January 2012 and now has jumped above the critical point. The average input cost of small and medium-sized enterprises rose for the first time in four months because of the rise in the prices of raw materials and fuels. Although the rise was small, considering that small and medium-sized enterprises have no room for product price increase, the future situation is not optimistic. Second, the employment rate remains unchanged. The employee index of large enterprises was 49.5%, up 2.4% from the previous month, lower than the critical point; Small and medium-sized enterprises barely supported, but they are still hiring more people, and the employment growth rate hit a nine month high. It can be seen that employment is not the biggest difficulty in recent years against the background of rising labor costs and the relocation of manufacturing industries to the West

the slow recovery of China's real economy is the result of policy pre adjustment and fine adjustment. Monetary easing and investment increase have improved the situation. The main risks in the future lie in three aspects: overcapacity in the real economy, the decline in consumption and the increase in enterprise costs make overcapacity depress enterprise profits, the decline in consumption makes investment dominant again, and the increase in raw material costs may lead to stagflation. At present, the setting key of New York crude oil futures above 100 yuan is the high level of shift function. If the economy improves slightly, the crude oil price will be eyeing covetously

the good news is that the market consumer confidence has recovered. Since January 20, the CSI consumer index (399932) has been in the rising channel, rising from about 5100 points to 5944 points, and the trading volume has increased. At this time, it coincides with the rise of the real estate sector in the stock market, indicating that investors have ardent expectations for real estate and consumption. To be sure, similar to the recovery of the weakness of the real economy, the recovery of consumer confidence is not stable. If the consumption of real estate and residents decreases, consumer confidence will fall again, causing a second blow to the real economy

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